Real Estate Investing in the Real World
Real Estate Blog
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 02, 2007

Nationwide Foreclosures are up 30% in the third quarter, compared to last quarter - and up nearly 100% over this time last year, according to RealtyTrac.

At the top of the list is Nevada, with one fourclosure filing for every 61 households, up over 200% from this time last year.  California is in second place, with 1 filing for every 88 homes

Investors will keep a close eye on their local situation in making investment decisions, but there are some interesting national trends forming.  Notably, 45 out of 50 states experienced year-on-year increases in foreclosures.  This, along with tightening credit, increasing oil prices and declining consumer confidence have the potential to have a broad national impact.  This is "the tide that lifts/lowers all boats."  So even though we may view national headlines with a shrug, smart investors in Oklahoma and Virginia realize that what's going on in California and Nevada really does matter. 

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Comments(19)
posted by: Chris Smith
Comments
November 03, 2007
03:11 PM
So Chris -- if $250K dropped into your lap today, what would you do with it?
November 03, 2007
08:05 PM
Next time try asking me a hard question…

But seriously, I could easily write a long article on what I’d do if an extra $250k were to fall into my lap, especially if I were to do so in a way that made my thinking transparent. But generally speaking, the real estate market – like most markets – is cyclical by nature. “Buy low sell high” looks like a no brainer on paper, but it can be hard to pull the trigger when you’re in real time.

But my personal rule is that if you’re waiting for the bottom then you should be looking to buy, ‘cause you’re not going to catch the bottom. And if you’re waiting for “affordability” then you need to cool your heels for a while – there’s a lot of downside left in the overheated markets (see the left side of the graph, above). This is a point I think we agree on, based on what I’ve read on your blog recently.

I’m a bit less crazy about Austin than you are since California money is already pouring in, which would make me a little nervous if I was getting in at this stage of the game. But if you can find properties that operate in the black without going to big on the down payment then the fundamentals of the area are pretty good, although I’m not a UT fan.

Houston still has some juice left, which is useful for me since I’m a “buy local” guy.

So…to answer your question…I’d probably put 20% down on a couple of $400-500k inner loop multi-family property here in Houston, look for a couple of small single family residences, and put the balance in the stock market. I’m bullish on oil & gas, especially services (deepwater drill rigs are renting for $600,000 per day, all time record levels) and nukes (might be a long term play, but look for a comeback – check out USEC, NRG Energy and Dominion Resources.)

The *real* play here is probably larger multi-family, and $250k gets you a $1 million property w/ some spare change for upgrades – a hell of a lot in Houston – but I wouldn’t have the bandwidth to manage it right now with the various other things I have going on. Like the vast majority of real estate investors out there, I’m a part-timer.
August 15, 2009
01:51 AM
Again a great reminder to keep everything in perspective!
November 14, 2009
03:47 AM
You are right12
November 14, 2009
04:03 AM
Thanks Admin wery good
November 27, 2009
09:56 PM
very good..
December 11, 2009
01:17 AM
Thanks for nice post.
December 11, 2009
01:18 AM
Its very beneficial information about real state.
December 11, 2009
01:18 AM
Great post.
January 18, 2010
03:27 AM
but I wouldn’t have the bandwidth to manage it right now with the various other things I have going on. Like the vast majority of real estate investors out there, I’m a part-timer.
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