There it is. The gauntlet is thrown down. For all to see in a public forum here is my speculative trade of the quarter. Storm clouds are on the horizon, foreclosures are up, and it’s going to get worse before it gets better. That said, it’s my view that the market in general has overreacted to the recent volatility in lending and has disproportionately punished companies like Countrywide [NYSE: CFC], who have become the whipping boys of the current crisis.

Countrywide’s 52 week high is $45.26, so now bouncing around $20 it looks like a bargain, in my view. The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is around 5.5, which is in the basement of the industry, whereas the operating margin of 32% puts it at the top of its peers. This, combined with my general consensus that the Chicken Little’s are ruling the day makes me think that this is a stock worth buying.

Is this an investment? No. It’s rank speculation. If I’m wrong about the direction of the market I’m going to take a bath on this one, but in my view the upside outweighs the downside. And as I’ve stated before, it’s my belief that speculative positions should play a role in most portfolios.

But a public declaration like this is something of an experiment for me. I’ll revisit in six months; depending on how things play out I’ll either proclaim myself a genius or offer a bunch of explanations (to my readers and to my wife) about why I was wrong.